Numbers, numbers, everywhere.
Josh Barbanel wades through third quarter figures from several different sources, and finds the market to be, essentially, stable–although the numbers vary pretty wildly. He also notes:
Part of the uncertainty over the direction of the Manhattan market comes from the many ambiguous and contradictory market reports issued by various brokerage firms. They all combine publicly available data on co-op and condo sales, with proprietary information on closed sales that have not yet been filed and recorded. The result is that each report includes a different mix of sales, and may record the same sales in different quarters as information becomes available.
Sometimes the information available is incomplete. Mr. Miller, for example, said the increase in reported sales might be the result in part of better data collection, as the city provided public access to sale prices of co-ops that had not previously been available.
Pamela Liebman, the chief executive of the Corcoran Group, noted that while the overall market paused in the last few quarters, the prices on smaller apartments had continued to rise, driving up median prices, a measure less influenced by multimillion-dollar sales, making even small apartments more expensive. As a result, some developers of new apartments have been offering concessions, such as covering closing costs, that would reduce the cash outlay needed to buy an apartment.
Gregory J. Heym, chief economist for Brown Harris Stevens, who produced the most seemingly pessimistic figures, said the price decline actually captured a market shift. He said the decline in average sales prices reflected a change in the typical apartments sold: the average apartment size dropped and the price per square foot rose.
He said he expected the strong local economy, and modest interest rates, to keep the co-op and condominium markets stable.
No surprise here that the five reports released yesterday all supply different information. Two of the reports were put together with help from the same appraisal firm–and the resulting numbers are still different? What does this all mean? I don’t know. I do suspect that we will begin to see more accurate information over the next 12 months as co-op information is now public domain. I would love to have a round table on True Gotham of all who had a hand in preparing these reports to take the inside scoop on why they vary so much. Stay tuned…
Rumors are swirling that the days are numbered for West Park Presbyterian Church at 86th Street and Amsterdam Avenue.
The story that I have heard, from a reliable source, is that the church is having financial troubles and is in need of extensive maintenance. My source says the church may close, and sell to a developer. The developer, in turn, will reportedly propose a 32-story condo, and may or may not incorporate the existing church into structure.
The developer would also have to buy air rights from the co-op directly north on West 87th Street. 176 W 87th recently purchased those air rights, in large part to help sustain the church and keep it from selling.
Some early ideas of what might replace the church.
…I’m eagerly awaiting this report. As you may remember, I predicted that we wouldn’t see concrete evidence of the cool down until third quarter numbers were released. Excited to see if I was correct.
I must admit, I’m a bit puzzled by this chart. I absolutely see the sales volume dropping but a 20.9% increase in median home prices from one year ago? I don’t buy it and would love to know the source of these numbers. I suspect that this number is skewed in part by the increased activity in the high end market.
On another note, did you see that NYC construction exceeded $20 billion? Can you say more supply? Holy cow! Who is going to buy all of this property? Time will tell but I still suspect buyers are going to have quite a bit to choose from in the next 12-18 months.
Fresh from my in-box:
Overall Manhattan Market [includes entire island]
Overall prices slipped this quarter but remain higher than price levels seen in the same period a year ago. The inventory of apartments available for sale leveled off this quarter after 6 consecutive quarterly increases but remain higher than the same quarter last year. Falling mortgage rates and stabilization of inventory have not yet provided enough incentive to stimulate increased demand.
Although the number of sales captured in the third quarter rose unexpectedly, this is partially attributable to the release of co-op data into the public domain mid-quarter and a surge in closings of new development condos.
-The average sales price increased 12.1% to $1,288,748 over the prior year quarter average of $1,149,813 (7% below the prior quarter of $1,386,193, a record).
-The average price per square foot increased 6.7% to $1,050 over the prior year quarter result of $984 (3% below the prior quarter result of $1,083, a record).
-The median sales price increased 12.7% to $845,147 over the prior year quarter median of $750,000 (4% below prior quarter median of $880,000, a record).
-The number of sales totaled 2,113 units, a 5.8% increase from the prior year quarter total of 1,997 units and 9.3% above the prior quarter total of 1,934 units. The increase in the number of sales was partially due to the increase in the number of co-op sales due to their entry into the public domain and partially offset by the decline in condo sales. The drop in the number of condo sales was more indicative of overall current market conditions.
-Listing inventory stabilized at 7,623 units, down 0.2% from the prior quarter but 32.3% above the prior year quarter. This is the first quarter with stable inventory levels after 6 consecutive quarterly increases. Overall inventory has increased 94.4% since the 4th quarter of 2004.
-The number of days it took to sell an apartment, which is a lagging indicator, edged up slightly, to 150 days from 144 days last quarter. It took 17 days longer on average to sell a property as compared to the same period last year.
-Negotiability expanded slightly with the listing discount rising to 4% for the quarter, from 3.5% last quarter and 2.2% from the prior year quarter.
Co-op Market
-The average price per square foot of a co-op increased 5.4% to $935 from the prior year quarter amount of $887 but was 6% below the record set in the prior quarter of $995 per square foot. Both median sales price and average sales price followed similar patterns.
-Inventory levels for co-ops reached 3,680 units up 6.9% from the prior year quarter total of 3,441 units but down 10.4% from the prior quarter total of 4,105 units. Co-op listings are comprised of nearly all re-sales, with limited new co-op development added to the housing stock.
Condo Market
-The average price per square foot of a condo increased 6% to $1,171 from $1,105 in the prior year quarter and up 3.3% from the prior quarter average sales price of $1,453,803.
-Inventory levels for condos totaled 3,943 units, up 69.7% from the prior year quarter total of 2,323 units and up 11.5% from the prior quarter total of 3,535 units. The gain in inventory is primarily attributable to new development.
Luxury Market (upper 10% of all co-op and condo sales)
-The luxury apartment market set an average sales price of $4,509,833 which was 17.9% above the prior year quarter average of $3,824,079, but 10% below the prior quarter average sales price of $5,013,147. The average price per square foot was the second highest on record at $1,721, second only to the prior quarter average price per square foot of $1,842. Continued strength in this market segment has been attributable largely to record bonus income in the financial services sector, which has been projected to be above the record level set last year.
Loft Market (co-op and condo sales)
-Lofts represented 7.2% of all sales and 11.1% of the aggregate sales dollars in the current quarter, more in line with activity levels of the past several years.
The average size of a loft apartment this quarter was 1,826 square feet, up 8.2% over the prior quarter and the largest average size posted in nearly 2 years.
Stay tuned for Corcoran Report numbers and the discussion over any discrepancies should they exist…
- Doug, not blogging today, sends a hearty "G’mar Tov" to TrueGotham’s Jewish readers.
- Teri Karush Rogers reports: "Two years ago, Heather Beth Johnson, an assistant professor of sociology at Lehigh University in Bethlehem, Pa., interviewed 20 children ranging from 5 to 12 years old in affluent suburban enclaves of Pennsylvania and New Jersey. Half of the children attended private schools. ‘When asked how they viewed families who lived in smaller houses, they said, ‘I feel sorry for them that they have a bad house, but if they really wanted to, they could work harder and have a better one.’ They would look down on the parents, and they felt sad for the kids,” said Dr. Johnson, the author of ‘The American Dream and the Power of Wealth’ (Taylor & Francis Group, 2006). ‘We were shocked.’"
- When it comes to being environmentally friendly, consumers are ahead of contractors.
- Stricter mortgage guidelines.
- Carol Lloyd: "The relationship between celebrities and real estate is a long if not always venerable one."
- Thoughts about why Craig’s List works.
- I guess this video counts as funny, in the sour context of a bubble blog.
Here’s another one of those “surveys” that tells us what the priciest markets are around the world.
As reported in the New York Sun, this is an interesting read but terribly inaccurate and borderline irresponsible, particularly the headline of the article: "Home Prices in California and Italy Are Priciest, Survey Finds."
California and Italy are indeed pricey markets, but get this… the study doesn’t include London or Tokyo (two of the more expensive markets in the world). Nor does it include Manhattan, because it only compares “homes” not apartments. Newsflash for the rest of the world… our apartments are our homes!
I completely understand that you can’t compare an apartment to a single family dwelling, but don’t make such a bold statement about the priciest markets in the world when you are excluding New York City, London and Tokyo. Why bother with a survey like this? Especially when you’re reporting about it in New York.
Perhaps Coldwell Banker should have released this survey with this catchy title…”Coldwell Banker’s Opinion on the Priciest Markets in the World, Based Only on the Markets it Serves, Excluding Manhattan.”
Trulia’s panel of experts gets reviews from Inman.
Kudos to Jonathan Miller once again and all of the Trulia panelists who accepted the challenge of making the prediction on August housing numbers. Miller is the only one on the panel who stated the obvious decline (albeit slight) in median sales price. I have an incredible amount of respect for this guy. He calls it like he sees it. Not that the others didn’t, but he got it right.
Also, if you haven’t already, check out the latest Carnival of Real Estate that Jonathan Miller put together.
He’s talking about the state of the market, and sifting through the numbers from the latest NAR report. It is scheduled to air at about 10:15 tonight.
