I’m heading out of town tomorrow morning and won’t be returning until Tuesday, August 28th. Time for some R & R with the family. Not quite sure what my internet access will be so postings will likely be on the light side.
See you soon.
For years the press has reported on the lack of high quality restaurants on the Upper West Side. And I have even had conversations with chefs (one of whom is on the list below and will remain anonymous) who strongly stated that he "would never open a restaurant on the Upper West Side because the residents don’t appreciate great food." I must say that as an Upper West Side resident, we are surrounded by mediocrity when it comes to our dining options. Of course I’m not including Ouest (thanks Tom Valenti) in that mediocre lot.
But there are exciting times ahead for those with a more sophisticated palate. Check out the who’s who of chefs who are going to change the dining frontier right here in our backyard:
- Ed Brown (from The Sea Grill in Rockefeller Center) is opening eighty one this October in the Excelsior Hotel at 45 West 81st between Columbus and CPW. Here’s the press release:
- Widely acknowledged for bringing out the best in seafood while he was executive chef at The Sea Grill, renowned chef Ed Brown puts his enthusiasm for impeccable ingredients to artful use with world’s most flavorful varieties of vegetables, meats and artisanal ingredients at eighty one. When eighty one opens on New York City’s upper west side, Brown’s repertoire will expand to include a menu of modern American dishes, where a stunning array of the globe’s most sought-after ingredients and the most refined techniques are used. Diners will be introduced to a new lexicon of luxury menu items: custom-grown lettuces, unusual white soy sauce and exotic, hand-selected peppercorns that will invite as much awe as foie gras and caviar. Designed by Chris Smith of CMS Designs (Dylan Prime, Nobu, NYC; Buddakan, Philadelphia), eighty one’s dining room will be lead by Nick Mautone, former Managing Partner of Gramercy Tavern; author of Raising the Bar, Mautone will also oversee the restaurant’s beverage program.
- John Fraser (formerly of Compass) is opening this Fall at 103 West 77th Street. More on this:
- John Fraser will become chef/owner of a new restaurant, as yet unnamed, scheduled to open in November 2007. Located on a quiet, leafy street (103 West 77th Street) just steps from New York’s American Museum of Natural History, Central Park and Lincoln Center, the restaurant will offer an intimate dining experience showcasing John’s passion for local ingredients and classical European training. His menu will reveal ingredients of integrity and a global perspective. Architect Richard Bloch’s rustic yet elegant interior design welcomes guests with warm woods, muted colors, and exposed brick. The restaurant will feature a weekend afternoon tea service, prix fixe Sunday night dinners, and an extensive sherry menu.
- Tom Valenti of Ouest fame is rumored to be opening a brasserie in Spring 08 in the old Fishs Eddy space on 77th and Bdwy.
- Zak Pelacio (formerly of 5 Ninth) is partnering with Jeffrey Chodorow to open right next to Tom Valenti (it’s rumored that the 3 of them have a big plan) where Zen Palate was also Spring 08.
- Daniel Boulud is opening his wine bar (Bar Boulud) this Fall around Lincoln Center.
- Jimmy Bradley (Red Cat, The Harrison) is rumored to be opening a branch of Mermaid Inn on the UWS. DATE and PLACE TBD.
Unlike other neighborhoods in Manhattan that saw top chefs move in before they saw top priced apartment buildings go up, the Upper West Side has been quite the anomaly "starving" for great food while real estate prices continue to soar. It appears that restaurateurs and top chefs finally have the confidence in the Upper West Side to believe that their establishments will be embraced. Only time will tell but I believe the time has come for an Upper West Side Restaurant Renaissance!
This morning I had the sincere pleasure of meeting with a TrueGotham reader who is considering a career in Manhattan real estate. She found me while reading a comment thread on an Asked Curbed question about becoming a broker. So what you say? The difference with this particular young woman is that she is a senior at Indiana University who is considering residential real estate as her primary career path right out of college. Just yesterday, I received an email from another TG reader who is in a similar boat. These emails have become quite common since TrueGotham was born and seem to indicate that the public perception of real estate agents is improving.
In an industry that is made up of a melange of 2nd and 3rd career seekers, it’s refreshing to see that new college graduates are considering the leap into our Manhattan marketplace. The young woman I had coffee with this morning would be a welcome addition to an industry that desperately needs some "new life." She is articulate, personable, intelligent, and energetic and is precisely the type of person that would serve to improve the reputation of the residential real estate industry.
During our informational meeting this morning, I realized that I would probably discourage 9 out of 10 people from entering this profession. Having said that, the 10% that I would encourage to give it a shot would have to understand and appreciate the following things:
- The industry is dynamic and in a period of great change that will continue to take place of the next several years. Although exciting, newbies need to understand that they need to bring something more to the table than simply being an information provider. Ask yourself this question: Why should someone who has all of the information at their fingertips pay me a commission to sell their home? Or help them find a home? Then answer it!
- Those considering the real estate profession shouldn’t expect a quick buck but should rather give themselves at least one year to determine if they want to continue down this path. Note…it often takes more than one year to make enough money to survive.
- Consider entering the industry as an assistant to a top producer or a member of a top producing team (one of my biggest regrets is that I didn’t do this). This will decrease the learning curve exponentially and likely put money in your pocket much more quickly.
- LISTEN…to other agent’s phone conversations, marketing presentations, showings, and most importantly the client.
- Align your strengths with your mission and create a business plan that encompasses these strengths. For example, if you have an interest in public relations, marketing, finance, or architecture, use the interest to make yourself stand out from the pack.
- Don’t be afraid to bring fresh, new ideas to the table that have never been done before…this will often make you stand out from the rest of the pack.
- Try not to have too many expectations because the person or team for whom you work will in large part determine your direction in the industry. If you don’t like the direction, make a change by joining someone else or another team.
- Don’t take yourself too seriously but do appreciate the fact that people are often entrusting you with the largest transaction of their lives.
- Lastly, if you feel like you have to be something you’re not, forgot about it. If you’re not salesy, then don’t be salesy. If you’re laid back, be laid back. Be yourself (assuming you’re a decent person with integrity) and you will appeal to the masses and be rewarded for it. It’s also a built in way to weed out the small percentage of scumbag sellers and buyers who you won’t want to work with anyway.
If this all sounds copacetic to you, then perhaps you are ready to give real estate a try. For those who think it’s easy and lack respect for real estate agents, stay at your current job or choose a different career path. Remember, there is a reason that 20% (I think it’s more like 10% make 90%)of those in my industry make 80% of the money and it’s "generally" not because they are lazy, stupid or incompetent as many "real estate haters" like to suggest. Most of my successful colleagues enjoy what they do and relish in the fact that each day is different from the last.
All of the recent press regarding the current mortgage meltdown and rising rate atmosphere is enough to make a borrower or their real estate agent a bit queasy. Of course those who can weed through all of the negative press and decipher what this means to our local Manhattan real estate market are having a little less agida. So what does it all mean:
First and foremost, the mortgage brokers and bankers to whom I’ve spoken have all indicated that the sub prime market was less than 5% of their local business. Remember that we’re talking Manhattan here. But we’re not talking just sub prime anymore as the spread of lending fears to the prime mortgage market have resulted in higher rates across the board for many. Just this morning, one of my associates (she works for me which is why I have the emails) shot an email off to a client who is purchasing a one bedroom on the Upper West Side. Here’s the email Q & A:
Agent: I was just in a meeting in my office- discussing state of market and mortgages. Have you locked in a rate at all- what is the current status of your loan?
Buyer: We’ve locked in a $417,000 mortgage(we will be putting up $133,000 , $55,0000 at signing and $78,000 at closing). 30 year fixed at 6.75%. It was .25% above our original estimates. Putting the extra $23,000 down is not only a wise investment, it also keeps us out of the jumbo market, and lowers our monthly payment.
So these buyers are avoiding the higher rates in the jumbo market by putting more money down. Fortunately for them, this is an option. For many of our buyers in the past several years, the extra down payment would not have been an option because it would change the buyer’s financial picture and negatively effect the way in which a co-op board perceived them.
These tightening lending standards are exponentially increasing the financial quality of the buyers in our current marketplace. Having said that, those marginal buyers who can’t come up with the extra down payment or no longer qualify for their loan based on a higher interest rate/a higher debt to income ratio won’t be shopping for an apartment anytime in the near future. The only way this pool of less qualified buyers can enter the purchase market is if lending standards ease (possible but not likely anytime soon) or prices come down (that is the million dollar question). The latter is the healthiest way in my opinion to welcome once marginal buyers back into the housing market.
In the meantime, those who can’t afford to buy a home, can’t actually buy a home. Wow!!! What a novel concept!
First I want to apologize for the light postings this week. Some exciting things going on behind the scenes here that are taking up a great deal of my time. That said, here are some links that I found interesting in perusing the RSS feeds this morning:
- Some front lines evidence of the Collateral Damage of the current mortgage market meltdown (via Clearing Title blog)
- Mortgage brokers beware…many banks don’t want your sub prime business anymore (via Calculated Risk)
- The New York Post reports on the closing of American Home Mortgage TODAY as well as the immenent bankruptcy of Accredited Home Lenders
- From Crain’s (7/27/07…don’t know how I missed this but better late than never) comes a report on the expected surge of NYC foreclosures (primarily outside of Manhattan)
- Three of the hardest hit neighborhoods are in Brooklyn, according to NEDAP: Bedford Stuyvesant, Flatbush and East New York. Two are in Queens: Rochdale and Jamaica.
- With all of this negative news regarding the housing market and mortgage meltdown, what is a "desperate" agent to do? Real Blogging shares some advice in recent posts:
- And ending on a positive note…Foreign Buyers Scoop Up Real Estate in the U.S. (via Real EstateJournal.com). One of the primary reasons Manhattan real estate has remained strong.
"And that’s about all I have to say about that!"…Forrest Gump
I just returned from a marketing presentation this morning in which I was reminded of how important it is to hire a knowledgeable and well-seasoned real estate agent. In this particular instance, the seller (referred to me by an attorney with whom I do a great deal of buisness) of the property has been wotking with a large, reputable firm and an agent with this firm who is her friend. The property is NOT seemingly overpriced but over 100 people have visited with no offers. The current agent’s response to the seller is "I just don’t understand why it’s not selling." Now I would be lying if I pretended that I have not uttered these same words to some of my clients. In fact, I have a 1050sf loft priced at $660,000 (forgive the plug but if you’re not interested, don’t click on the link) that has elicited these words from my lips all too often in my seller’s opinion. That’s not the point of this post though.
The point is that for 6 months this property has been marketed featuring the wrong attributes that would appeal to the largest pool of relevant buyers. You see, this is a 300sf Upper West Side studio apartment. The current agent has featured it as an Emory Roth starter apartment that needs TLC. I’m sure all of you studio buyers are just chomping at the bit to have a look see at this one! In my humble opinion, the current agent has completely missed the boat and here’s why:
- Many of those who would be buying a starter apartment have no clue who Emory Roth is.
- Suggesting it as a starter apartment "discriminates" against the masses who may be seeking a pied a terre, a better located studio, the desire to downsize, or any number of other reasons for wanting this space.
- Whether or not the apartment needs TLC is relative and completely up to the prospective purchaser. I have often (no longer unless I’m asked) spewed my "opinions" about how a space could be changed only to discover (after removing my foot from my mouth) that the prospective purchaser likes the space exactly the way it is. In this instance, the bathroom is in very good original condition with an enormous soaking tub and original subway tiles. The kitchen may need updating but that is the buyer’s decision as it is totally useable and clean in its current state.
- Finally, in my humble (not so) the agent has neglected to point out the most important factors of the property.
Here’s what I would highlight and feature about this apartment should I be selected as the exclusive agent to sell it:
- Sweeping open protected views of the Upper West Side.
- One of Upper West Side’s best blocks sandwiched between Riverside and Central Parks and steps from The American Museum of Natural History, Zabars, Fairway, the new Equinox (coming in 18 months), etc. (I could go on)
- Pied a terre friendly building that also allows parents to by with children (Guarantors).
- And finally, an Emory Roth building with an explanation of what this means.
I’m truly surprised that the current agent has chosen to ignore these very important aspects of this property but it reminds me that knowing who your buyers are is one of the most important factors in marketing to them. If 100 people have seen this place and no offers have been made, one of two things is wrong: either the price or the type of prospective purchaser visiting the home. In this case it seems like the latter.
When you’ve experienced success in the Manhattan real estate market as a real estate professional, it can be easy to forget your humble beginnings and even get a little cocky. Confidence is a must but cockiness can be detrimental to your business. Case in point: 3 of my most recent listing presentations resulted in someone else procuring the exclusive right to sell the property.
- The Referral from a Friend (Upper West Side Studio): Most of the friends, family and past clients who send me business are my most solid referral sources so I sometimes take for granted that whomever they are referring to me is "already mine." Bad assumption…these prospective clients are entitled to the same presentation as anyone else would be and some would suggest that they should get even more hand holding. In this instance, the seller of the property had an existing relationship with another broker so it was up to me to convince him that I was bringing something more to the table. I neglected to do a thorough marketing presentation providing just what the seller needed to feel confident in hiring is current broker to do the job.
- The Coincidence/Referral from Attorney (Upper West Side 1BR): A couple of weeks ago i boasted about an open house that I had in which more than 80 people attended and we received 7 offers over the asking price. One of the attendees of the open house owned a very similar property in the building next door. She liked the way we marketed this property but wanted to first call her attorney for his advice as she had been trying to sell her home on her own up until now. Her attorney coincidentally suggested to her that she hire me and my team to sell her apartment. After sharing this information with me, I again felt the property was "in the bag" and foolishly neglected to do a proper and thorough listing presentation. She hired one of my colleagues who sits just a few desks away because they had "chemistry."
- The Cold Call from a Prospective Seller (Upper West Side 1BR): On Friday we received a call from a prospective seller who wanted to meet with me and my team on Sunday evening. We suggested that Monday morning would be better because it was more "convenient" for my schedule. Yet another foolish move on my part. Upon awaking this morning, I turned on the ole Blackberry to discover that my 9:30AM marketing presentation was canceled by the seller because they met "several brokers on Sunday night and already decided who they were going to hire." Again, my cockiness bit me in the you know what.
So today I blog after a big breakfast of humble pie. Humility is good! I didn’t get to where I am in this industry by sitting on my bum and expecting business to just come to me. I have worked very hard to get where I am and need to remember that the hard work that got me here must continue. These 3 experiences have served to remind me that no matter the source of a referral or prospective business, I must stay mindful of the hard work and effort that has gone into serving all of my past and present clients. This revelation will most certainly breed future success. So to those who hired my colleagues instead of me, "thank you!"
Vikas Bajaj of The New York Times reports on a Home Refinancing Program (that) Aims to Help Owners Stay Put:
New York State and the Federal National Mortgage Association will announce plans today to refinance up to $100 million in mortgages for homeowners who are facing the prospect of higher monthly payments on troubled home loans in the coming months, officials said.
A mere bandage for a problem that needs a tourniquet. But some relief nonetheless.
The plan, which is called “Keep the Dream,” is expected to provide enough money to cover several hundred mortgages. It is similar to programs adopted by several states, including Massachusetts, Ohio and Maryland, that are trying to address, in a limited way, the fallout from the aggressive home loans made during the recent housing boom.
In the coming year and a half, mortgage experts say, about $800 billion in adjustable-rate mortgages will reset to higher interest rates. Though most homeowners should be able to refinance, economists worry that many may no longer qualify for a new loan because lenders have become stricter and home prices have been falling in most parts of the country outside Manhattan.
The powers that be at both the Federal and State level seem to acknowledge that this is just the beginning of what needs to be done to prevent further meltdown.
At the federal level, Senator Charles E. Schumer, Democrat of New York, has introduced a bill that would offer $300 million in federal funds to refinance and provide counseling for borrowers nationwide who are encountering difficulties. The senator also hopes to raise $600 million from private lenders.
Now $900 million may seem like a lot of dough to some, but considering some of my colleagues sell $100 million worth of real estate in any given year, this hardly seems like it will make any great impact on the troubled mortgage market. With an average home price of about $250,000, this program would help about 400 people nationwide assuming Schumer successfully gets the $600M of private money.
Having said that, it will provide relief for those who meet the following guidelines:
The loans can be no bigger than $427,000. Borrowers cannot earn more than 125 percent of the area median income in upstate New York and 165 percent of the area median income in the city and its suburbs.
If you do in fact meet these guidelines, you can apply for these loans beginning in September. For the rest of you, buckle in, it’s gonna be a wild ride!
It’s mighty quiet in the office today except for the chatter among my colleagues about the stock market plummet (Dow down more than 300 points if you didn’t know already). But I’m not here to feed your anxiety, nor mine so if your interested in some truly smart talk about what is going on regarding this story and residential mortgage backed securities, check out my friend Noah Rosenblatt’s blog UrbanDigs.
On a much lighter note, you absolutely must read"Should I Become a Real Estate Broker?" on Curbed. It begins like this:
Hi Curbed, should I become a real estate broker? I’m sort of frustrated at my current job and have always fantasized about entering the real estate fray. Becoming a broker seems intriguing, but I have a few questions:
- Money (will s/he make any)
- Timing (funny right?)
- Sphere of Influence (this person allegedly has none)
Check out the entire post paying particular attention to the comments thread…good stuff…some not so good.
Here’s my answer to this Curbed reader’s question:
In my humble opinion, it doesn’t seem like the best time to switch from your current profession to that of a real estate agent. In short, here’s why:
- Money-unless you enter the industry as an assistant to a top performer, I can almost guarantee you will make very little or no money at all for your first year or two. In my 15 years, I have watched the revolving door of agents come and go in as little as 30 days but usually about 6 months. It takes some thick skin to work in a profession that is covered in a cloud of disrespect.
- Timing-the entire country with the exception on Manhattan is experiencing a horrendous housing slump. It seems increasingly more likely that Wall Street isn’t going to setting any bonus records this year (that’s putting it lightly) and that sector has played a great role in buoying our local housing market. The slump could in fact be around the corner for NYC. Having said that, I entered the business in 1992 when properties were on the market for 2 years before selling. I got a great education but the growing pains were numerous.
- No Sphere of Influence-I too had no "wealthy" sphere of influence when I started in 1992. My first boss suggested I write down every single person I would invite to a wedding. I did just that and was stunned at the sources of business that came about from that initial list. This isn’t a reason NOT to join the industry but the long wait for that first deal and current market conditions may be.
As far as the Curbed readers opening comment about being frustrated at her current job…well…um…uh…you want to experience frustration like you’ve never experienced it before, then come on over. We’ve got plenty of that to go around!
So little time to blog lately as the market has indeed been keeping me and my team busy so here’s some links that you may find helpful or at least a good read:
Be back tomorrow with some original TrueGotham material.
